REAL ESTATE CRASH OF 2021 – My Thoughts



My thoughts on the real estate housing crash of 2021 and how I’m investing to protect my money

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Let’s talk about the real estate crash of 2021 and the reasons why I believe we’re going to see it happen soon. I want to give credit to Ken McElroy who originally inspired my idea with his own video which was a response to Meet Kevin’s original video about real estate. So let’s get right into it starting with the problem.

First let’s talk about delinquencies. What is a delinquency? Delinquencies are when you don’t make your monthly mortgage payment on time. Not to be confused with a default which usually happens after your delinquent several times after which point your loan goes into default.

If these defaults don’t get taken care of then that’s when it is sent to the collection agencies where you will see a huge drop in your credit score. To avoid that from happening besides obviously paying on time, people refinance their homes to make their monthly mortgage cheaper and more affordable. According to Black Knight, it’s also why we’re going to see more than 9 million refinance in 2020 which is the highest levels that we’ve ever seen. People are taking advantage of low interest rates so if you’ve been thinking about doing it, seriously consider doing it because you’ll probably benefit.

Even though October’s national delinquency rate was down 3.3%, the lowest since March of 2020, and even though we’re down 64,000 serious delinquencies which is an improvement, we are still up nearly twice as much as we were at the start of 2020, and we still have over 1.8 million serious delinquencies which is 5 times higher than they were before the pandemic started. Not to mention the period between October to November usually sees an uptick of delinquencies by about 4%. The cities that will be hit the hardest are Las Vegas, Miami, Orlando, New Orleans, and New York (highest delinquency rates in the country).

Before we see a decrease in real estate prices though, we’re going to more spikes in average home prices for a while in certain markets that are cheaper like Las Vegas but that’s short term optimism boosted by people leaving big cities like New York City, like Los Angeles, like San Francisco to buy in cheaper towns like here, so they can save money on taxes and work remotely in cheaper towns. This spike in prices will also be thanks to help from the government but all of that is short term. There’s only so much we can drop interest rates to prop up real estate before we can’t go lower unless we go negative – which the Fed stated they don’t want to do. But mostly, it comes down to two things. Jobs and government.

For starters, government – there is going to be a wave of forbearances due at the end of December. 39% of forbearance plans are going to expire and most of those plans are reaching their 9 month period. They’ll be allowed to extend an additional 3 months after that which puts us to March 2021 (plus extra month of delinqency) putting us between April / May timeframe where can see what’s going on in real estate. Logic is pointing us toward an increase in inventory levels that should in theory drop our prices.

The second factor is jobs. The world economic forum predicts 85 million jobs will be lost to automation which is huge and coupled with the pandemic and that’s a potential recipe for a very bad time for real estate, however, with the eviction crisis right around the corner, there will be a huge demand for rental housing, so that can potentially do very well.

To protect myself, I’m investing in inflation protected assets. A study by Charles Schwab (https://bit.ly/2JN9DmR) found that when inflation was above 4%, commodities and gold were the assets for investors. When it was 2% or lower, the S&P 500 was the #1 best investment. This is why I’m buying both digital currencies and stocks as we go into 2021 and I’ll wait until April/May to see where real estate will be before I buy investment properties and real estate in general.

*None of this is meant to be construed as investment advice, it’s for entertainment purposes only. Links above include affiliate commission or referrals. I’m part of an affiliate network and I receive compensation from partnering websites. The video is accurate as of the posting date but may not be accurate in the future.

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Real Estate in your 20s: How to Become a Real Estate Agent



Real Estate in your 20s. How to become a real estate agent, wholesaler and an investor. Building wealth from a young age so you can retire early! Comment any topics you’d like to see or questions you may have that was not covered in this this video.

How to become a real estate agent in your state:
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The Real Estate Market Just Got Worse



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Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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Real Estate Market Update:
Even though mortgage rates just recently hit their record low for the 13th time this year…low inventory means it’s going to be more difficult to find a house, THAT’S going to lead to more competition, and – in the end – that translates into HIGHER PRICES.

There’s also a brand new 0.5% “ADVERSE MARKET FEE” that will be charged on ALL Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac home refinances beginning December 1st.

n terms of what this means for you – if you have a mortgage backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, which is about 50% of all home loans…if you want to refinance your house, it’s now going to cost your lender an extra .5%, which is expected to then be passed on to YOU as the customer.

Overall, even though I THINK that type of “adverse market fee” is annoying…it’s not the end of the world. When you refinance a mortgage, you’re doing so because you want to lower your payment…and even though a .5% fee means less money back to you…in most cases, you’re still saving money at the end of the day.

And lastly…let’s talk about what’s going on with mortgage forbearances:

The GOOD news is that, since April…the total number of loans in forbearance has been steadily decreasing week after week, as homeowners began making their payments again. This was a REALLY good sign that, homeowners took forbearance out of an abundance of caution…they didn’t need it…and now they’re in a good position to resume as usual. HOWEVER…in an unexpected turn of events…in these last 2 weeks, for the first time since April… the number of mortgages in forbearance actually started to tick back up.

Now, a more TELLING sign would be if this trend CONTINUES for another few months, in which case – that’s something to address….OR, if this is a result of new shutdowns, fewer people opting OUT of forbearance, or wanting to play it a little safer over the holidays.

It’s too early to tell, but I’ve still maintained the position that – overall – mortgage forbearances only make up a small portion of the housing market, it won’t cause a wave of foreclosures, and even IF people are unable to pay – I have a strong feeling that banks will want to work with their clientele to AVOID foreclosing on them at all costs. So, I’d venture to say that – even though, YES, it’s unfortunate that these numbers are going up – it’s too early to draw any meaningful conclusions.

If you’re a buyer for homes right now, my best advice is to keep looking, don’t get discouraged, and you MUST be quick to get a deal when you see the right home. I WOULD expect prices to come down at some point, ESPECIALLY once interest rates EVENTUALLY go back up…but, that could be awhile, and until then, if you’re looking for some place to buy and hold long term, over 10 years…it’s probably a better idea to spend the time finding the right place, locking in as low of a rate as you can possible get…and then, do nothing.

As long as you can comfortably afford to make the payments, any fluctuations in price won’t matter…and from there, you can ride out anything that might happen. Long term, I’m still bullish on real estate…but, in the short term, competition and lack of inventory is going to make it REALLY hard to find something worth buying.

For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at [email protected]

*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.

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Why I Stopped Buying Real Estate



Lets talk about why I’m not investing in any more real estate, my thoughts on the current housing market, and how I plan to invest the rest of my money in 2021. Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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My thoughts on the 2021 real estate market:

First, interest rates are at their historical all time lows, ever. Typically, this would bode REALLY well for a real estate investor like myself….

But, SECOND…that comes at a cost. Because interest rates have become so inexpensive, it’s driven up the price of real estate because – now – people can afford to spend just a little more than before, and there’s more demand to lock in a mortgage.

Third, speaking of demand – there’s a LOT of it. So much so, that it’s caused inventory to drop to its all time lowest level…also, in history.

That means, fourth – when you combine low interest rates, with low inventory, with high demand…you get a market that’s EXTREMELY difficult to find the type of deals that I’m looking to buy.

WHY I’M NOT BUYING REAL ESTATE:
For the last 10 years, I’ve invested nearly EVERYTHING I save into Real Estate, and for the longest time – that made up almost the ENTIRELY of my investment portfolio.

Even though it was VERY PROFITABLE…it’s NOT SMART to hold 90% of your net worth in real estate, in one city. It’s just too big of a risk that something COULD happen, without at least having SOMETHING ELSE to hedge that position. Something like this never really clicked when I was younger, because I was all about going after whatever made the most money…but, at a certain point, it becomes more important to PRESERVE your wealth, then CONTINUE growing it as fast as possible…and by diversifying AWAY from Real Estate, it’s given me a LOT more peace of mind that – no matter what happens – I’ll be good.

Next, another recent revelation that I’ve come to understand over the last year – is that value of my time. I’ve gotten to a point where I don’t have enough time in the day to get everything done. Even something like “hopping on a 30 minute call” has turned into a “I need o schedule this a few days in advance” because otherwise, everything else is booked up and I have to pull away from something else just to make the time. If I didn’t prioritize EVERYTHING this way, NOTHING would get done, and things would fall through the cracks…so, I now have a value for my time, and I ration it very precisely.

Because of that, I’m not able to spend the time I used to to be able to find the right deal, and manage the work myself.

For me, and – I think for MOST people – Real Estate is a PHENOMENAL TOOL for wealth CREATION. There’s no other investment that offers the opportunity to potentially DOUBLE your money, YEAR AFTER YEAR, through sourcing the right deals, fixing them up, and renting them out.

However, at a certain point – I need to take a step back, and realize that I’ve been TOO oriented around real estate, from a diversification standpoint, and it MAKES SENSE to take a more hands off, passive approach so that I have more time to focus on other endeavors.

My investments right now are all about lower risk, lower return, more diversification, and a safer allocation that allows it to continue to grow – but, at a slower, more consistent rate. It’s less stress, less work, less for me to think about, the more I can streamline my entire life – the better I can work on other things. .

For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at Grah[email protected]

*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.

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The Upcoming 2021 Real Estate Collapse Explained



Here is my analysis on the 2021 Real Estate Market, what will happen to housing prices, and whether or not it’s a good time to buy or invest in a home – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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What will happen to the real estate market in 2021?

This article from the National Association of Realtors, who launched a survey among 20 top US economic and housing experts, predicted that housing would see an increase of 8% in 2021.
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/top-economic-and-housing-experts-predict-post-pandemic-rebound-with-continued-job-growth-stable

THE CONTRIBUTORS FOR THIS:
Right now, lack of inventory is a big issue. It’s recently recorded that the number of homes currently listed for sale on the market is at its lowest level EVER RECORDED, going back NEARLY 40 YEARS

Second, we’re seeing incredibly low interest rates.
Rates have NOW dropped below 2.7% on a standard 30 year fixed rate mortgage…which is UNREAL.. and just for reference, last year, mortgage rates were about 3.7%…which is nearly 40% HIGHER than what we’re seeing today.

That also means – BECAUSE OF THAT – home buying demand has increased…and increased…and increased…to a BRAND NEW RECORD HIGH. A survey found that more than HALF of buyers felt like it was a good time to buy because of insanely low mortgage interest rates, so it’s no surprise that’s driving a BIG push for people to lock in a low rate while they still can.

HOWEVER…Not EVERYONE is so optimistic.

The economist, Michael Strain, mentions that, as of recently, 10% of the 8-million single family mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration were delinquent by more than three months….along with “These delinquencies are heavily concentrated among loans associated with low credit scores.” 

He then says that this is cause for concern, because the ONLY REASON we’re NOT seeing a “Wave of foreclosures” is because of a provision in the cares act that temporarily freezes foreclosures until 2021.

Well, through September of 2018…the rate of seriously diligent loans was about 3.7%…and, at any given point in time, historically, 8-9% of FHA are behind on their payments by 30 days or more…so, YES, FHA loans more than 90 days late ARE more than DOUBLE what they were just 2 years ago…but, given that – most of the time, almost 4% are consistently more than 90 days late..it’s not AS BAD as we expected.

The data company Black Knight found that 2.75 million mortgages, or 5.2% of all residential properties with a mortgage, were in active forbearance as of Dec. 8.

But, here’s a more broad perspective when it comes to this:

There are 138 million total housing units in the United States – this includes single family, condos, multi-family, and apartment buildings…and of those, 40% are completely owned outright with no mortgage.

Then – of those properties with a mortgage, which is estimated to be approximately 50 million properties…the mortgage bankers association found that that 5.83% are in a forbearance plan, which they say impacts 2.9 million households.

In order for a home to be foreclosed, it needs to be taken over by the bank – and the seller must GENERALLY owe more on the home than what it’s worth, otherwise – the seller would just sell the home on the market to avoid foreclosure. Well, the data company CoreLogic found that only 3% of all mortgaged properties are underwater, which is an ALL TIME LOW.

So, if we assume that ALL 3% of those underwater homes go into foreclosure from those 5.83% of loans in forbearance…that means only 0.1749% of mortgaged properties would be foreclosed on…or, 96,000 total homes.

So, OVERALL…based on the numbers and evidence presented to us…no, a wave of foreclosures is HIGHLY UNLIKELY of ever happening that would “Crash” the real estate market.

For business or one-on-one real estate investing/real estate agent consulting inquiries, you can reach me at [email protected]il.com

*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available.

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